Ushering in the 111th Congress
The 2008 Congressional elections resulted in significant democratic gains – currently 19 seats in the House and six in the Senate – with the potential of causing large shifts in the membership and leadership compositions of the House and Senate Defense Committees in January.
ARMED SERVICES
House of Representatives
In the House, as many as seven roster slots on the Armed Services Committee will be vacated due to incumbent election losses and retirements, creating a large shift that may pose lasting implications for the next Congress.
On the Republican side, three senior lawmakers are retiring from the panel, including the full committee ranking member Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Air and Land Forces Subcommittee ranking member Jim Saxton (R-NJ), and Strategic Forces Subcommittee ranking member Terry Everett (R-AL). Additionally, losing re-election bids were Reps. Robin Hayes (R-NC) and Thelma Drake (R-VA) – although Drake has yet to concede due to the recounting of over 25,000 absentee ballots. The Democrats, on the other hand, are only losing two members – Reps. Mark Udall (won his Colorado Senate race) and Nancy Boyda (lost her re-election bid).
Most significantly, it is expected that eight-term Congressman and current ranking member of the subcommittee on Military Personnel John M. McHugh (R-NY) will get the nod for replacing Hunter as ranking member of the full committee. Representative-elect and Iraq veteran Duncan Duane Hunter, Hunter’s son and namesake, will almost assuredly earn his father’s committee slot in January.
The vacancies will also likely grant other incoming freshman with the opportunity to serve on the coveted panel, including Alabama Democrat Bobby Bright (winner of Everett’s seat), North Carolina Democrat Larry Kissell (winner of Hayes’ seat), Iraq and Afghanistan veteran and Ohio Democrat John Boccieri (winner of retiring Republican Ralph Regula’s seat), and Kansas Republican Lynn Jenkins (winner of Boyda’s seat). Furthermore, Democratic leadership has assured a seat for Virginia Democrat Glenn Nye if he is successful in defeating Drake – a critical concession for Virginia’s 2nd District, which houses the Navy’s Atlantic Fleet and the U.S. Joint Forces Command.
It has also been rumored that Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO) is seeking a smaller committee – currently 62 members – although such a decision will be solely in the hands of Democratic leadership.
Senate
Although the composition of the Senate Armed Services Committee will shift more Democratic due to the majority’s pickup of at least six Senate seats during the elections, the defeat of committee member Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and the retirement of former chairman John Warner (R-VA) will likely prevent any Republicans from losing membership.
Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) and Presidential nominee John McCain (R-AZ) will return as chairman and ranking member, respectively. It is expected that McCain will play a much more active role in formulating defense policy in the 111th Congress, as the demands of the 2008 presidential campaign forced Warner to step in as the de facto ranking member.
In terms of subcommittee leadership, the only expected change is the replacement of Dole as the subcommittee ranking member of the Emerging Threats and Capabilities subcommittee. Currently, Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) is next in line to claim the post.
DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS
House of Representatives
In the House, defense subcommittee leadership will likely remain the same, as Chairman John Murtha (D-PA) earned his 19th House term following an election race that many observers predicted would be extremely close (Murtha prevailed with 58 percent of the vote). The only subcommittee vacancy will occur following the retirement of Robert E. “Bud” Cramer (D-AL).
Senate
In the Senate, 90-year old Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Robert C. Byrd (D-WV) will step aside and relinquish the top spot to Senator Daniel K. Inouye (D-HI). Currently the chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee, Inouye will maintain both positions in the 111th Congress. On the Republican side, Senator Thad Cochran will also maintain his position as both ranking member of the full and defense appropriations subcommittees (Cochran replaced Alaska's convicted Republican Senator Ted Stevens as subcommittee ranking member in July).
The only defense subcommittee roster adjustment comes with the retirement of Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), while Military Construction/Veterans Affairs subcommittee member Wayne Allard (R-CO) will also retire.
Budget
President-elect Obama plans to promote increased transparency in the war funding budget partly through the elimination of supplemental appropriations bills. However, the FY10 Department of Defense budget has already been drafted with an increase of over $50 billion above the FY09 budget, and it keeps with the trend of funding the war via a supplemental request. The supplemental request is expected to be submitted to Congress by December of 2008 to fund war operations for the second half of FY09.
The President’s budget is usually submitted to Congress in February, however, with the change in administration, Obama will want to take ownership of and give his seal of approval to the FY10 budget. Some new presidents have taken as long as 6 months to release a revised defense budget, but Democrats will be under extra pressure to release an updated budget quickly as they are often seen as unsupportive of national security issues.
With these factors in mind, though Obama is against supplemental appropriations, it may prove too much to tackle in his first few months in office to completely re-construct the DoD budget to include war funding requirements. Additionally, Obama’s 16-month timeline to withdraw from Iraq (not factored into the current FY10 budget or supplemental request) further complicates war spending requirements.
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
The question still remains whether or not President-elect Barack Obama will pursue temporary continuity or wholesale change when it comes to the Secretary of Defense.
According to several sources obtained by Congressional Quarterly, President-elect Obama is currently considering a transition plan that will allow Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates to retain his position at the Pentagon for up to a year, while former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig would fill the role of Deputy Secretary with the intention of replacing Gates following his departure. Former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) and current Senator and Army veteran Jack Reed (D-RI) have also been suggested as potential nominees. The President-elect is likely to announce a few key Cabinet nominations including Defense in the coming weeks.
The Obama Defense transition team, announced November 12, will be led by Michèle A. Flournoy, president of the Center for a New American Security, and John P. White, chair of the John F. Kennedy School of Government's Middle East Initiative at Harvard University. They will start working with the Pentagon as early as November 17.
Flournoy served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Threat Reduction during the Clinton Administration. White served as Deputy Secretary of Defense and Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget under Clinton, and as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Manpower and Reserve Affairs under President Carter.
For more information, please contact Major General Tony L. Corwin, USMC (Ret.) at corwin@blankrome.com.